Midwest Drought Expands Heading into 2026 Planting Season — What Farmers Should Watch

As of February 10, nearly 47% of the Lower 48 states are in drought, and conditions are expanding across the Midwest. In Iowa, roughly 45% of the state is classified as abnormally dry, with three counties now in moderate drought. With below-average snowfall leaving soils exposed and the March 15 crop insurance deadline approaching, here's what the conditions mean for your spring planting plans.

What's Happening in the Midwest

The U.S. Drought Monitor data through February 10, 2026, shows drought conditions expanding across multiple regions, with the Midwest among the hardest hit. Moderate Drought (D1) is spreading in northern Illinois, and new Abnormally Dry (D0) areas have emerged in southern Iowa and northwestern Missouri. Mounting precipitation deficits of 2 to 4+ inches over the past 60 days are driving the expansion.

In northeastern Illinois, very dry soils are being observed in Boone, DeKalb, Kane, and McHenry counties. The deepest drought conditions stretch from central Illinois through northern Indiana and into northwestern Ohio. Some minor improvements were noted in portions of Ohio, Indiana, and Wisconsin where isolated heavy rainfall of 2 to 3 inches fell, but the broader trend across the Midwest is worsening.

Iowa: Almost Half the State Is Abnormally Dry

According to a February 6 report from Radio Iowa, about 45% of Iowa is classified as abnormally dry, including much of eastern and southern Iowa along with a small patch in the northwest. Three counties have crossed into moderate drought territory.

The Iowa Department of Natural Resources flagged the situation as early as December 2025, issuing a drought watch for northwest and eastern Iowa after a dry autumn. That dry pattern has continued into winter.

The Winter Precipitation Problem

A key driver of the concern is below-average snowfall and rainfall across the region. Eastern Iowa and western Illinois entered mid-February with virtually no snow on the ground. At the Quad Cities International Airport in Moline — the official climate site for the Quad Cities area — just over 20 inches of snow have fallen since the start of the snowfall season, roughly 4.5 inches below average through February 10. Most of that snow fell during a narrow window from late November through mid-December.

The area is also sitting 1.66 inches below average in total rainfall and snow liquid equivalent so far in 2026.

Why does winter snowfall matter for spring planting? Snow acts as an insulating blanket over the soil, keeping moisture from evaporating during winter. Without that snow cover, exposed soil loses moisture to evaporation and wind, leaving fields drier heading into planting season. As KWQC meteorologist Kyle Kiel put it: "If the weather pattern does not change in the next several weeks and months, drought could become an issue during the important planting season."

What the Spring Outlook Says

There is reason for cautious optimism. Corteva Agriscience's 2026 planting weather outlook notes that the Corn Belt areas with the deepest drought — central Illinois through northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio — are forecast to receive significant rainfall that could reverse much of the current drought.

Additionally, a possible shift toward El Nino during the second half of spring could bring greater temperature and precipitation variability across the Corn Belt. Corteva's outlook concludes that "nothing really points to a hot and dry summer" and that overall, "it looks like a pretty decent growing season in 2026, especially if we do head into El Nino territory."

That said, forecasts are not guarantees. If the current dry pattern persists through March and into early April, planting conditions could be materially affected — particularly for operations in the hardest-hit areas of Illinois and eastern Iowa.

What This Means for Your Operation

Soil Moisture and Planting Decisions

If you farm in eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, or anywhere the Drought Monitor shows D0 or D1 conditions, pay close attention to soil moisture as you approach planting. Dry topsoil at planting time can lead to poor seed germination and uneven emergence, which directly impacts yield potential. Monitor conditions field by field — soil type, slope, and residue cover all affect how much moisture your fields are retaining.

Crop Insurance Before March 15

The crop insurance sales closing date for corn and soybeans in most Midwest states is March 15, 2026. With drought conditions present and expanding, this is not the year to be underinsured. If you haven't reviewed your coverage levels, now is the time.

A few things to consider:

• Prevented planting coverage — If drought prevents you from planting, your crop insurance policy includes prevented planting provisions. To qualify on non-irrigated acres, the area must have insufficient soil moisture for seed germination on the final planting date.
• SCO and ECO subsidies at 80% — As we covered in our crop insurance article, the 2026 premium subsidies for Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) and Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO) are at 80%, making supplemental coverage more affordable than previous years.
• Revenue Protection (RP) — RP protects against both yield losses and price declines. In a drought year, yield protection is critical.

Market Implications

Drought in the Corn Belt tends to be bullish for grain prices, but the extent of the impact depends entirely on timing and severity. A drought that resolves before pollination has minimal yield impact; one that persists into June and July can be devastating. Right now, the market is not pricing in a major drought — but it's watching. Any deterioration in the spring outlook could provide rallies worth pricing into.

The Bottom Line

The Midwest is heading into the 2026 planting season drier than normal. Nearly half of Iowa is abnormally dry, northern Illinois is expanding into moderate drought, and below-average winter precipitation has left soils without the moisture cushion that snowfall normally provides. The spring forecast offers some hope — significant rainfall is expected in the hardest-hit areas, and a possible El Nino shift could help — but nothing is locked in.

For corn and soybean farmers across the Midwest, the practical steps are clear: monitor the Drought Monitor weekly, review your crop insurance coverage before March 15, and factor soil moisture into your planting decisions field by field. The next six weeks will tell us a lot about what kind of growing season 2026 will be.

---

Sources

• drought.gov: National Current Conditions (Feb 10, 2026)
• U.S. Drought Monitor
• Radio Iowa: Only Three Iowa Counties in Drought, but Almost Half Are Very Dry (Feb 6, 2026)
• KWQC: Recent Lack of Snow and Moisture Raises Spring Drought Concerns (Feb 10, 2026)
• Iowa DNR: Dry Autumn Leads to Drought Watch (Dec 4, 2025)
• Corteva Agriscience: 2026 Planting Weather Outlook
• USDA RMA: Prevented Planting Insurance Provisions — Drought